A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
