Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
