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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.